I have discovered a website that predicts the outcomes of all the high school football games in Ohio and uses them to rate a school's playoff berth probability.

This isn't like www.joeeitel.com, which figures out the math in the Harbin Points and uses the best and worst case scenarios to determine if you're still mathematically alive, or have clinched a playoff spot, or even an opening round home game.

The new (to me) site is Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50. This site acutally uses statistical analysis to PROJECT/PREDICT winners of every game and then recalculates the playoff points for future weeks.

The site claims an above 80% success rate in picking winners. That's pretty good and makes it a good reference to consult.

With that said, the following area teams are already rated at 100% IN:

Ottawa Glandorf

L.C.C.

Coldwater

Delphos St. Johns

Leipsic

McComb

Marion Local

Ada

Ft. Loramie

I'll thrown in St. Henry (99%), Minster (98%) and Arlington (96%) as locks.

Now, here's the situation for some others:

Elida. Their overall chances are pegged at 80%. Even if they only win one of their final two games (Celina, at Defiance) they've got a 78% chance. If they win both, they're in.

Liberty Benton. 79% chance to get in. 100% if they beat Leipsic and Van Buren. However, if they only win one, the chance drops to 60%.

Here are the other teams odds to get in if they win their last two games: 

Waynesfield (vs. Patrick Henry, @Dayton Christian): 100%

Jefferson (@Ada, vs. Spencerville): 100%

Kenton (@Defiance, vs. Wapakoneta): 90%

Versailles (vs. Minster, @St. Henry): 90%

Spencerville (@Lehman, @Jefferson): 85%

Celina (@Elida, vs. Bath): 66%

So, to put a little more context to our broadcast game this Friday (Celina at Elida): If Celina loses, they'll effectively be eliminated. Even with a win over Bath, they're currently put at 5% at 7 wins.

If Elida wins it all but assures them of a playoff berth, assuming they beat Defiance, which they'll be heavily favored to do. Even with a loss, Elida's playoff chances at 7 wins is pegged at 78%.

The site is really cool, click on the link above and check it out!

By the way, from just a mathematical best/worst case analysis, Joe Eitel says Coldwater has already clinched an opening round home game while L.C.C., Leipsic and McComb are playoff bound.

Ottawa Glandorf, Delphos St. Johns, Ada and Minster control their own destiny.

The Reds season ended painfully, losing the NLDS despite winning the first two games in San Francisco.

While the ultimate measure of a team is winning a World Series title, this season was a very good one to be a Reds fan.

I thank the Reds for their perseverance that led to another Division Championship.

If, before the season, I would tell you that ANY team would go through the following circumstances, I doubt you would predict that they would be a Division Champ and one swing of the bat from the National League Championship Series:

1. Spent big money on a proven closer only to lose him for the season to a spring injury.

2. Lost two bullpen mainstays effectively for the entire season.

3. Regularly employed a rookie left side of the infield.

4. Lost a recent MVP, in his prime, for nearly one-third of the season.

5. Had its aggregate leadoff hitters compile the worst stats in MLB.

6. Had to play an 11-game West Coast swing going into the All-Star break which wrapped up a stretch of 17 out of 23 on the road.

7. Had its everyday CF hit about .210.

8. Had possibly the worst bench in baseball.

9. Made no major move at the trade deadline.

I applaud this team for its toughness and its refusal to cave in despite all the very convenient reasons to do so.

The best things that happened this season was the evolution of Homer Bailey. He has now arrived. The no-hitter and the postseason gem show that the maturation is complete.

Reds fans, let's try to savor this season in the midst of the pain and take solace in the fact that this team is built to win for a number of years into the future.

Again, thank you  2012 Reds.

As it pertains to the High School Football Harbin Points rankings (commonly referred to as "the computer points), I've always stayed away from even looking at them early in the season because there are so many game remaining.

However, it's now time to take them seriously.

To back that up I researched the standings from the 2011 season after seven weeks.

To wit, of the 192 teams that were in the top 8 in their regions, 158 made the postseason. That's just over 82% if you're wondering.

Even more defining, only 2 teams that were in the top 4 after seven weeks missed the playoffs.

Meaning nearly 98% of the teams in the top 4 after seven weeks made the postseason.

On the other side of that coin, only 12 teams that weren't in the top 10 rallied to make the playoffs.

The moral of the story: If you're not in the top 10 right now, start looking to hoops season. AND if you're in the top 4 right now, start clearing your calendars for week 11.

Here's my new high school football Area Top 10:

1. Coldwater, 7-0

2. O-G, 7-0

3. Findlay, 5-2

4. L.C.C., 7-0

5. Marion Local, 6-1

6. Celina, 6-1

7. Elida, 5-2

8. Bath, 5-2

9. Ada, 7-0

10. Leipsic, 7-0.

This week's Bath at Elida games features both teams at 5-2 overall.

That got me to thinking when is the last time these two faced each other with both of them at least 3 games over .500?

It took awhile but I finally found the answer: 1988.

Both teams were 4-0 as they squared off at Kraft Stadium. Elida won the game in overtime, 12-9.

Bath would not lose another game that regular season, knocking off St. Marys in the season finale to share the WBL crown. The 'Cats then defeated Willard 14-7 in the playoffs before bowing out to Cleveland Orange in the second round, 14-12.

As for Elida, they would get to 7-0 before the bottom fell out and cost them not only a league title but a playoff berth. They lost in OT in consecutive games. Week 8 it was Wapakoneta 25-22 and Week 9 it was St. Marys 28-21. Then a season-ending loss at Van Wert, 14-0, capped the descent.

Another note on this series: The last time both schools finished with a winning record was 1995.

The heyday of this rivalry was certainly the 1970's and 80's. Both schools were consistently good and the games were consistently close and meaningful.

To that point, during the Coach JIM DALLY ERA at Elida (1972-92) the series was dead even at 10-10-1; During the Coach GARY DELUCA ERA at Bath (1980-92) it was also dead even at 6-6-1.

In Dally's 21 years, 11 of the games were decided by a touchdown or less.

To many, the defining game of that time was scoreless tie at Bath in 1981. Both teams would finish the season 8-1-1, losing only to St. Marys, and missed the playoffs.

If the 0-0 game wasn't the defining game of the era, the next season's may have been. Elida won the game at Kraft Stadium, 13-7, and would nearly have a perfect season, finishing 9-0-1. The only blemish was a 6-6 tie with Van Wert. Bath would finish at 8-2 with another loss to St. Marys.

The Bulldogs of Coach Dally would lose to Toledo St. Francis, 7-6, in the Regional Finals (which was then the first round). That was the only playoff berth in school history until the last two 'Dogs teams have advanced past Week 10.

I hope this week's meeting is the beginning of another golden age of the Elida-Bath rivalry.